Project management BBR:
Thomas Wehmeier

Abstract

The research project "Regional Development of Building Development Areas in the Former East German States on the Basis of Forecasts by the Construction and Real Estate Industries" should be considered against the backdrop of the substantial uncertainties of public planning authorities with regard to future demand for development areas and the target of reducing daily land utilisation to 30 hectares over the long term. In terms of the methods employed, the project is based on the evaluation of 75 published forecasts and on the written survey of 837 protagonists from the real estate industry (returned: 68 questionnaires) as well as 30 subsequent in-depth interviews.

The parties surveyed tend towards the opinion that much of the demand for development areas over the next 15 years will be significantly lower as compared to developments since reunification, and that this will apply to all market segments except for the market for logistics properties, in particular to the office market, commercial properties and the construction industry/craft trades. The greatest pressure of demand for development areas will continue to come from logistics and the housing market.

The demand for land for residential building will continue to be driven by the construction of single-family and two-family homes, while construction multiple dwellings will provide virtually no stimulus to the demand for housing development areas. The demand for single-family and two-family homes will increase by around 15% to 20% by 2020, corresponding to daily gross land requirements of approx. 2 to 3 hectares.

Both the quantitative forecasts and the parties surveyed consider that the demand for development areas for the retail and office market segments will be very subdued. The minimal demand that will be present will be almost exclusively concentrated in the faster-growing metropolitan regions, with some retail trade demand also occurring in more dynamic and tourist-oriented medium-sized population centres.

Assessment of the manufacturing trade is more varied. While one group of those surveyed expect the demand for land to stagnate or even decline in the future, a further group anticipates a revitalisation of the demand for land due to the dynamic growth of the industrial sector in the former East German states. However, the demand in this case is expected to focus on existing industrial centres such as Leipzig, Dresden, Jena, Halle on the River Saale and the areas to the south of Berlin.

The logistics market will continue to represent a growth market, which will also benefit parts of the former East German states, in particular autobahn sites in proximity to large consumer locations and industrial centres (Leipzig, Dresden, Erfurt and Berlin).

One point that applies to all market segments is that future demand for land will, above all, be focused on the metropolitan regions of Rostock (housing, logistics), Berlin/Potsdam (housing, retail, office, logistics), Magdeburg (retail), Halle/Saale (manufacturing, logistics), Leipzig (all market segments), Dresden (all market segments), Erfurt (commercial, office, manufacturing), Jena (housing, manufacturing, office) and Chemnitz/Zwickau (manufacturing, commercial).

In terms of the types of site and location, demand is mostly focused on the housing, retail and office market segments, primarily on more central, urban sites. Those surveyed feel that peripheral locations will experience either little or no demand. With regard to manufacturing and logistics, demand will essentially be concentrated on the autobahn sites of the metropolitan regions mentioned above.

In view of the high volume of former industrial land available for conversion in the former East German states and the lack of added value potential in the face of high land preparation and development costs, the marketability of this land is extremely limited. In particular, land available for conversion in economically weaker areas is never likely to experience (sufficient) demand.

The abstract is part of the German publication "Regionale Siedlungsflächenentwicklung in den neuen Bundesländern auf Basis von Prognosen der Bau- und Immobilienwirtschaft",
Forschungen 123, Ed.: BMVBS/BBR, Bonn 2007 - out of print
ISBN 978-3-87994-455-2, urn:nbn:de:0093-FO12307150
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